About Me

My photo
New Orleans, Louisiana, United States
Admire John McPhee, Bill Bryson, David Remnick, Thomas Merton, Richard Rohr and James Martin (and most open and curious minds)

30.12.17

Thought

In Galileo’s Dialogue Concerning the Two Chief World Systems (1632), three Italian gentlemen – one philosopher and two laymen – debate the structure of the Universe. The philosopher, Salviati, argues in support of the Copernican theory, even though it requires a moving Earth – something that strikes his interlocutors as problematic, if not absurd. After all, we don’t feel the ground moving beneath our feet; clouds and birds are not swept backwards as the planet whooshes through space; a ball dropped from a tower does not land far away from the base of that tower. 
But Salviati, standing in for Galileo, asks his companions, Sagredo and Simplicio, to reconsider their intuitions. Suppose one were to drop an object from the mast of a tall ship. Does it make any difference if the ship is moving? No, Salviati insists; it lands at the base of the mast regardless, and therefore one cannot conclude anything at all about the ship’s motion from such an experiment. If the ship can be in motion, then why not the whole planet? Simplicio objects: Salviati has not actually carried out this shipboard experiment, so how can he be sure of the result?
‘Without experiment, I am sure that the effect will happen as I tell you,’ he replies. After some further cajoling, Simplicio is won over.
Today, most scientists and philosophers believe that there is only one reliable way to learn about the world, namely, to poke and prod at it – the view that philosophers call empiricism. When a child does the poking and prodding, the activity is called play. When a scientist does it, it’s called observation and experiment. In either case, though, we learn by seeing and doing.
But as Galileo has shown, there seem to be exceptions to this rule. There are – allegedly – occasions when we come to understand something about the world via a peculiar kind of experiment that takes place only in the mind. Thought experiments, as they’re known, are an exercise of pure imagination. We think about some particular arrangement of things in the world, and then work out what the consequences would be. In doing so, we seem to learn something about the laws of nature.
Thought experiments have played a crucial role in the history of physics. Galileo was the first great master of the thought experiment; Albert Einstein was another. In one of his most celebrated thought experiments, Galileo shows that heavy objects and small objects must fall at the same rate. On another occasion – building on the ship’s mast argument – he deduces the equivalence of reference frames moving at a constant speed with respect to one another (what we now call Galilean relativity), a cornerstone of classical physics.
Einstein, too, was adept at performing such imaginative feats in his head. As a young man, he imagined what it would be like to run alongside a beam of light, and it led him to special relativity. Later, he imagined a falling man, and realised that in freefall one doesn’t feel one’s own weight; from this insight, he concluded that acceleration was indistinguishable from the tug of gravity. This second breakthrough became known as the ‘principle of equivalence’, and led Einstein to his greatest triumph, the general theory of relativity.
What these examples have in common is that knowledge seems to arise from within the mind, rather than from some external source. They require no laboratory, no grant proposal, no actual doing of … anything. When we perform a thought experiment, we learn, it would seem, by pure introspection. ‘Seem’ is perhaps the key word. Whether thought experiments actually do present a challenge to empiricism is hotly contested.
Subscribe to Aeon’s Newsletter
James Robert Brown, a philosopher at the University of Toronto, believes that thought experiments really do represent a kind of epistemic free lunch. They give us insight into the laws of nature, he says, and they do it without the need to get one’s hands dirty, so to speak. Back when he was a student, Brown sympathised at first with the empiricists; they ‘seemed to me to have the winning hand’, he recalls. He admired Plato and René Descartes, the champions of pure reason, but was skeptical of their claims that one could intuit the workings of nature from within one’s own mind.
Then Brown heard the Galileo falling-bodies thought experiment, and everything changed.
This particular thought experiment warrants a closer look. It can be found in Galileo’s final book, Discourses and Mathematical Demonstrations Relating to Two New Sciences (1638). (By the time Galileo wrote it, he was under house arrest in Florence and forbidden from publishing any books, but he managed to have the manuscript smuggled to Holland, where it was printed.) In the Discourses, Galileo asks us to imagine dropping two objects of differing weights – let’s say a musket-ball and a cannonball – from a tower. The arguments set down by Aristotle, as well as common sense, say that the heavier object will strike the ground first.
But suppose we connect the two objects with a short, stiff rod. One could argue that the lighter musket-ball acts as a brake on the heavier cannonball, slowing its fall. Then again, one could also argue that the composite body, whose weight is equal to the sum of the two original bodies, must fall faster than either body alone. This is obviously a contradiction. The only solution, Galileo says, is that all bodies fall at the same rate, independent of their weight.
‘It’s dazzling that you can think your way through to the solution without actually performing an experiment’
‘I fell out of my chair when I heard it,’ Brown said. ‘It was the most wonderful intellectual experience perhaps of my entire life.’ Brown went on to become a leading authority on thought experiments. His book The Laboratory of the Mind(1991) was one of the first in-depth treatments of the subject. More recently, he co-edited The Routledge Companion to Thought Experiments (2017), along with his University of Toronto colleague, Yiftach Fehige, and Michael Stuart, a postdoctoral fellow at the London School of Economics. Even after decades of studying thought experiments, however, the case of Galileo’s falling bodies remains Brown’s favourite: ‘I think everybody should find it sort of dazzling that you can think your way through to the solution of a problem without actually performing an experiment.’
If Brown is right – if Galileo successfully thought his way through to understanding something profound about the natural world – then it is important to know how, exactly, he pulled it off. Brown’s view is that thought experiments allow us to glimpse ‘universals’; that is, they let us discern universal truths about the natural world. In much the same way that we arrive at mathematical truths (by thinking about them), we can also arrive at certain truths about nature.
In other words, although the world is full of physical stuff, occupying space and persisting over time, some truths about the physical world have a very un-physical flavour. They resemble mathematical truths, seeming to exist outside of space and time. These truths, Brown believes, can be intuited a priori, without the need for observation or experiment. It’s an idea that goes back to Plato, and indeed Brown cheerfully describes himself as a Platonist.
For several decades now, John Norton, a philosopher at the University of Pittsburgh, has defended the empiricist camp against Brown’s Platonism. Norton believes that thought experiments, far from offering a glimpse into a realm of Platonic truths, are simply elegantly crafted arguments that bring vivid pictures to the mind’s eye. They do not produce new knowledge, he says, other than what one might deduce from analysing the knowledge already implicitly contained in the argument’s own premises. Thought experiments, as he wrote in a paper in 1996, ‘open no new channels of access to the physical world’.
Consider again the Galileo case. In Norton’s view, all that we arrive at ‘in our heads’ is the fact that Aristotle’s position – that objects fall at speeds proportional to their weights – is flawed. We might go on to accept Galileo’s proposition – that all bodies fall at the same rate – but only if we accept his carefully laid-out argument, which in turn relies on a good deal of previously obtained knowledge about the world, Norton says.
For Norton’s position to hold up, it would have to be possible to reconstruct all thought experiments as arguments – which he believes can indeed be done, at least for thought experiments in physics. He invites Brown, or any Platonist defender, to put forward a thought experiment that can’t be transformed in this way. ‘It’s been an open challenge,’ Norton told me. ‘To prove me wrong, you just have to produce one thought experiment that I can’t reproduce as an argument. And no one has.’
The result of Norton’s challenge has been a particular version of intellectual ping pong that both he and Brown seem to enjoy. ‘I say: “Come on, Norton, what about this one?” And he’ll usually come back 24 hours later, and he’s reconstructed it as an argument,’ Brown said. These argument constructions, Brown notes, are technically sound. They start with premises and proceed following rules of either deductive or inductive inference. ‘I am pretty much prepared to believe that he can do this in every case,’ Brown said. ‘And that’s a major concession. Nevertheless, I don’t think his account could possibly be right.’
Brown’s concern is that even if a thought experiment can be reconstructed as an argument, that’s not how we actually work through them in our heads; the cognitive process is much more intuitive, and less analytical, than Norton’s nuts-and-bolts account. Rather, what unfolds is more like a kind of ‘aha’ moment – seeing the obvious truth of something that had been hidden just moments earlier. Norton disputes this. ‘It’s much messier than Jim [Brown] says. Jim says he instantly sees it. Well, we tend to see all these things because we’ve been primed in all sorts of ways already,’ Norton said. In the Galileo case, we’ve been primed by learning about falling bodies in school – and, perhaps more significantly, through years of actually seeing objects fall, Norton says.
‘You must believe in epistemic magic to believe that sitting in an armchair gives you knowledge of the world’
One thing the two thinkers agree on is that thought experiments, like real experiments, can be flawed; only some of them (the Galileo case, for example) truly offer a glimpse into nature’s inner workings. But here, too, Norton has a beef: ‘If thought experiments are “Platonic perception”, then tell me, how do I know which is the good one and which is the bad one? And of course [Brown] can’t tell me, because there is no way; you just kind of feel it,’ Norton said.
In Norton’s view, since Brown cannot explain why some thought experiments succeed and some fail, his entire programme falters. Brown counters that in this regard thought experiments are no different from ordinary, physical experiments: ‘Like almost anything in life, they are fallible.’ For Norton, the larger problem is the mechanism by which thought experiments produce knowledge. From his perspective, this knowledge can come only from cleverly manipulating knowledge that you already have; the alternative, he believes, is absurd.
‘Thought experiments are arguments – and if you think that there’s something more going on, then you have to believe that there’s some kind of epistemic magic at work,’ Norton said. ‘You have to believe that simply sitting in an armchair and thinking somehow is giving you knowledge of the world… Now, if you think that, it is mysterious as to what’s going on.’
Norton compares the positions that he and Brown have staked out to the layout of a shopping mall. ‘You know how when you have a mall, you put a Nordstrom [department store] at one end, and something else at the other end, and everyone dances around in-between,’ he said. ‘So Jim [Brown] and I have defined the territory, and people have tried to figure out where they live, in-between.’ The only problem, Norton says, is that in the empiricism-Platonism debate, intermediate positions don’t make much sense. Either you believe that one learns about nature empirically, or you believe that you can intuit how the world is just by thinking about it. ‘I don’t think there is any intermediate, stable ground,’ Norton concluded.
Brown, as it happens, feels the same way, saying that empiricism is ‘sort of a package deal’. In the empiricist view: ‘Everything you know is based on experience. There is no other way to learn anything. So if you think that there’s even one thing that you know that’s not empirical, you stop being an empiricist … It’s a bit like an atheist saying: “99.999 per cent of the stuff that happens, happens under natural law. There’s hardly ever a miracle.” If you’re going to be an atheist, you can’t believe in even one miracle.’
(When Brown and Norton meet in real life, as they do with some regularity at conferences, they get along fabulously. ‘Jim and I are the best of friends,’ said Norton. ‘It’s a riot when we get together.’)
Perhaps both views are wrong. It is possible that thought experiments are neither glimpses into Plato’s heavenly realm nor straight-up, ordinary arguments. A third possibility, put forward by the cognitive scientist Nancy Nersessian of the Georgia Institute of Technology, is that when we think our way through a thought experiment, we are engaging in what she calls ‘mental modelling’.
Mental modelling is exactly what it sounds like: just as we can build physical models using our hands, we can also construct mental models using our minds. Nersessian points to an example from the late American polymath Herbert Simon: how can you tally the number of windows in your home without looking? Simon believed that there’s only one way to produce an answer to this question: you create a model of your house in your mind, and take a virtual walk through it, counting the windows. But the virtual model is more than just a representation of the real thing. Manipulating either sort of model involves similar brain processes, Nersessian says – a claim backed up by recent brain-imaging studies.
‘A mental model is basically a representation of the structure, function or behaviour of some system that you’re interested in – some real-world system that retains its sensory and motor properties that you get from perception,’ Nersessian said. When we manipulate a mental model, she argues, we use ‘some of the same kind of processing that you use to manipulate things in the real world’.
At first glance, this view seems more closely aligned with Norton’s than with Brown’s. Nersessian is no fan of Platonism. Before we can say anything about the physical world with certainty, she says, we have to perform real experiments, not just thought experiments: ‘We need to have that last step.’ On the other hand, Nersessian’s account seems more sympathetic to Brown’s claim that we ‘see’ things in our minds than to Norton’s notion of constructing an argument. When you carry out a thought experiment, you’re ‘creating a representation of the situation that has certain structural and behavioural properties’, in Nersessian’s words. We then manipulate those properties and draw an inference, she says. ‘You’re making the inference directly through that manipulation, rather than saying: “If p then q; p therefore q.”’
Brown agrees. Even if some thought experiments can be recast as arguments, ‘actual scientific thinking is a hell of a lot quicker’ and we arrive at the answer ‘long before anyone does this reconstruction’.
Minds do not exist in a vacuum: they’re the result of processes tied up with the physical world
But, like Norton, Nersessian believes that what seem like a priori intuitions actually rely on underlying empirical knowledge. She regards thought experiments as ‘extrapolations from our embodied experiences in the world’. Consider Galileo’s falling bodies in this context. ‘You have experience with heavy objects, and you have experience with light objects, and you know how they feel,’ she said. Galileo’s thought experiment ‘draws on your experience with basically feeling these things in the world’.
The philosopher and cognitive scientist Daniel Dennett of Tufts University in Massachusetts has a similar perspective. He has written extensively on thought experiments. His critiques of several well-known thought experiments in philosophy – including John Searle’s ‘Chinese room’ argument (1980) and Frank Jackson’s knowledge argument (1982) – are nearly as famous as the original works that they rebuke. Dennett describes thought experiments as ‘intuition pumps’: stories that structure the way that you think about a problem. They can prod the reader into seeing a problem in a new way, which makes them incredibly powerful, but they can also mislead.
Like Norton and Nersessian, Dennett has little patience for Platonism. ‘The idea of intuiting the laws of nature à la Plato strikes me as a fascinating idea which has outlived its usefulness,’ he said. He believes that whatever knowledge about the world might be gained via thought experiments does not come solely from within the mind. If it seems to do so, that is only because we have failed to consider what minds are, and how they work. Minds, Dennett argues, do not exist in a vacuum. Rather, they’re the result of a lengthy process of both our development as thinking, experiencing individuals, and our evolution as a thinking, experiencing species – processes that are very much tied up with the physical world.
When we ‘intuit’ the lesson of Galileo’s falling-bodies thought experiment, then, we are benefitting from that rich evolutionary heritage. ‘The mind that can conceive of and follow that thought experiment has been enriched, first of all, by hundreds of millions of years of evolution, which has created structures and dispositions in that mind that are due to factors in that world,’ Dennett said. ‘The mind also has an education and an upbringing, has learned a natural language, knows how to comprehend the terms of the thought experiment – all of that is an incredibly rich empirical embedding in the world.’
Brown is not at all distressed by the lack of enthusiasm for Platonism. Instead, he is pleased that what was once a relatively overlooked branch of philosophy has spawned such a rich, interdisciplinary discussion and a growing body of scholarly work. He is especially gratified to see the question of how thought experiments work receiving the scrutiny that it deserves.
‘My general view about thought experiments is that they work in all kinds of different ways. In that regard, they’re like real experiments, which work in all kinds of different ways,’ Brown said. ‘I think Norton is probably right about some cases; they’re actually just arguments. I also think that people like Nancy Nersessian are right in some cases – that her mental models account of what’s going on is probably right.’
Even so, Brown is sticking to his Platonic guns. ‘There’s a very small number of thought experiments – and Galileo’s falling bodies is one of them – where I think we actually have a priori knowledge of nature. And that’s where I would differ sharply with Norton.’
‘If we can know the laws of nature by armchair reflection, why not put more resources into armchairs, not CERN?’
If he is correct that some truths about the world truly can be deduced by the power of pure thought, the implications are vast. For starters, it leads naturally to the question of why we get only rare, occasional glimpses of Platonic truth. Why are those cases different from all the others? But more than that, Brown’s position is an affront to the way we’ve thought about knowledge for the past 400 years.
Everyone from bakers to lawyers starts with the assumption that what they see and touch is, ultimately, what matters: we bake and adjudicate in the real world, not in Plato’s heaven. As Norton puts it: ‘We do not convict someone because a prosecutor “just knows” that the accused is guilty.’ Science, above all, is the discipline that takes observation most seriously. ‘If Jim [Brown] is right that we can know the laws of nature by armchair reflection, shouldn’t we put more resources into armchairs and not into CERN?’ asked Norton, referring to the European physics collaboration that runs the Large Hadron Collider. ‘We could buy a lot of armchairs for what CERN has cost.’
Brown is no more keen to change the rules of science than Norton is. (He also admits that it likely doesn’t matter much to scientists what philosophers say about their craft. As Richard Feynman allegedly quipped: ‘Philosophy of science is about as useful to scientists as ornithology is to birds.’) But as Brown sees it, the best evidence for empiricism’s failure – or perhaps ‘incompleteness’ – doesn’t come from science anyway; it comes from mathematics and from ethics.
Empiricism can’t explain why the square root of two is an irrational number, or why it is morally wrong to hurt someone for no reason. Although Brown admires Norton’s attempt to keep thought experiments in the empiricist ark, he suspects that the vessel is already hopelessly leaky. ‘The great virtue of Norton’s account is that it saves empiricism,’ Brown said. ‘But I’m unimpressed with saving empiricism, because I was never an empiricist to start with. I’ve always thought that empiricism is a failure because of mathematics and ethics. I’m just not in love with it. I’m not keen to save it.’

Paper

Old Mohawk paper company lore has it that in 1946, a salesman named George Morrison handed his client in Boston a trial grade of paper so lush and even, so uniform and pure, that the client could only reply: “George, this is one super fine sheet of paper.” And thus Mohawk Superfine was born.
This premium paper has been a darling of the printing and design world ever since. “Superfine is to paper what Tiffany’s is to diamonds,” Jessica Helfand, co-founder of Design Observer magazine once said. “If that sounds elitist, then so be it. It is perfect in every way.”
Mohawk tells the Superfine origin story every chance it gets: on their website, in press releases, in promotional videos and in their own lush magazine, Mohawk Maker Quarterly. And now Ted O’Connor, Mohawk’s senior vice president and general manager of envelope and converting, is telling it again. He sits on an ottoman in a hotel suite on the 24th floor of what a plaque outside declares is “The Tallest Building in the World with an All-Concrete Structure”. It’s day one, hour zero of Paper2017 in Chicago, the annual three-day event at which the industry, its suppliers and its clients come together to network and engage in “timely sessions on emerging issues”. Attendees are rolling in and registering, and the Mohawk team is killing time before wall-to-wall meetings.
The Superfine story is personal for Ted. George Morrison was his great uncle. His grandfather, George O’Connor, started the company when he acquired an old paper mill at the confluence of the Hudson and Mohawk rivers in upstate New York. Ted’s father, Tom Sr, took over in 1972. Now, his brother, Tom Jr, runs the fourth-going-on-fifth-generation paper company.
Once Ted finishes the story, we talk about the paper industry – where it’s been and where it’s going. “Years ago, when I used to go to these types of meetings with my father, there were probably 16 mills – Strathmore, Hopper, Rising, Simpson, Mohawk, Beckett … We’d talk about trends in the industry and distributors and things like that, and, um … ” He stops to reflect. “They’re all gone.”
He lets that sink in for himself.
“Because they sat there and made just what they made for 30 years, and it kind of gets obsolete.”

“Paper is Good.” So reads the packaging on a ream of 8.5in by 11in, 20lb, white (92 on Tappi’s T-452 brightness scale), acid-free, curl-controlled, ColorLok Technology®, elemental chlorine-free, Rainforest Alliance Certified™, Forest Stewardship Council® certified, Sustainable Forestry Initiative® Certified, Made in USA Domtar EarthChoice® Office Paper. “Great ideas are started on paper,” the packaging reads. “The world is educated on paper. Businesses are founded on paper. Love is professed on paper. Important news is spread on paper.”
Domtar is right: paper has played “an essential role in the development of mankind”. And yet, for decades, civilisation has been trying to develop beyond paper, promoting a paper-free world that will run seamlessly, immaterially on pixels and screens alone. How did paper get here? Where does it go next? For that matter, why is paper – which does its job perfectly well – compelled to keep innovating?
On 26 March, I step into The Tallest Building in the World with an All-Concrete Structure, ready to find out. Billed as “THE annual networking event for the paper industry”, Paper2017 consists of just three panels and presentations across its three-day agenda. The rest of the time is dedicated to what are called “suites” – well-appointed hotel rooms that serve as basecamp, conference room and informal networking space all in one. Alas, because I am a journalist with zero interest in selling or being sold anything, I score only a few suite dates in my time at Paper2017. Instead, I spend a good amount of my time in a communal catch basin of sorts called the “connections lounge” (CL).
A paper mill in Minnesota.
 A paper mill in Minnesota. Photograph: Alamy
The CL is a great place to sip $5 cups of coffee and thumb through the latest issue of the Paper2017 Convention Daily, published in three separate editions for each day of the conference, and printed on obscenely large 16in by 11.75in glossy tabloid that serves as an oversized “screw you” to palm-sized devices. It is printed by O’Brien Publications, which also publishes PaperAge magazine, the newspaper of record for all things pulp and paper since 1884.
Advertisement
I stroll through the CL, drawn to an unmanned National Paper Trade Association table piled high with juicy-looking literature on paper’s many virtues. I take one of each and sit down at a cocktail table to thumb through my haul of brochures announcing paper “myths” and paper “facts”. Above, the glass beads of a chandelier sway almost imperceptibly in the air conditioning.
A tall, thin man introduces himself to me as Neil. “So, what brings you to Paper2017?” he asks. I give my thumbnail sketch – journalist, piece about paper, etc. And now it’s his turn: something something something cloud-based software, something something business intelligence analytics, something something manufacturing profitability improvements. Later I would see Neil approach at least three other tables, on the prowl for potential clients. He tells me he grew up in paper’s Silicon Valley: Wisconsin. His dad worked in the mill and he grew up in company homes. One day a Finnish corporation bought the mill and moved the whole process to Finland, leaving a shuttered plant behind. Neil tells me about his son, who is double-majoring in public policy and English, but who “didn’t tell his dad about the English part”. Dad seems displeased by this: “He made it tougher on himself.” And then, perhaps remembering that he was speaking with a man of letters, he quickly adds: “But, no, I have a lot of affinity for writers, people who write.”

Ts’ai lun, a Chinese eunuch and privy councillor to Emperor Ho Ti, gets the credit for inventing what today we recognise as paper, in AD105. The basic formula remains unchanged. Some fibrous material – rags or wood – is mashed up, mixed with water to make pulp, then strained through a screen. Matted, intertwined fibre remains, held together by the same hydrogen bonds that twist DNA into a helix. This is dried and cut into paper.
The technology spreads from Asia through the Arab world, eventually landing in Europe circa 950. All the glory goes to Gutenberg for his printing press of 1440, but his metal movable type would have been nothing more than an oversized doorstop if there had been no paper for it to press upon. Paper historian Dard Hunter states the case clearly: “If man may now be considered as having reached a high state of civilisation, his gradual development is more directly due to the inventions of paper and printing than to all other factors.”
It is all the more shocking, then, how many times paper’s death knell has tolled through the halls of universities, corporations, governments, newsrooms and our own homes. Like fusion power, the paperless world has been just a decade away for the past half century, approaching but never arriving.
In the mid-70s, Businessweek published an article by the head of Xerox’s research lab that is credited for first putting down (on paper) a vision of a paperless “office of the future”. It painted a not-incorrect picture of future workers going about their business accessing and analysing information on screens. And yet paper continued its ascent: global consumption grew by 50% between 1980 and 2011.
On the factory floor at a paper mill in South Carolina.
 On the factory floor at a paper mill in South Carolina. Photograph: Bloomberg via Getty
Why? Abigail J Sellen and Richard HR Harper, respectively a principal researcher at Microsoft Research Cambridge and co-director of Lancaster University’s Institute for Social Futures, have a few solid theories. First, they note that computers and the internet brought unprecedented access to information – information that, while accessed digitally, was still best consumed on dead trees. Second, printing technology became so small, cheap and reliable that just about anybody with a computer could also afford their own on-demand press.
“We have heard stories of paperless offices, but we have never seen one,” Sellen and Harper wrote in their book The Myth of the Paperless Office. “More commonly, the introduction of new technology does not get rid of paper; it increases it or shifts the ways in which it is used.” The catch here is that the book was published in 2002, just before luminous smartphone screens took a hold of the same paleomammalian cortex that steered early Homo sapiens toward fire’s glow.
Since then, screen resolutions, load times and user interfaces have improved dramatically, striving toward a functional ideal that, ironically, looks and feels a lot like paper. Just this year, a startup called reMarkable launched a tablet that offers “the most paper-like digital writing experience ever”. Technology is a snake that eats itself.
And yet! Still no paperless world.

By 9.54am on day two of Paper2017, the CL has reached peak capacity and peak caffeination. Old friends are reconnecting, deals are being done. I’m sitting alone at the cocktail table, waiting for my next suite rendezvous. I see the strictly enforced lanyard-wearers-only policy being strictly enforced on a trio of lanyardless suits. My official lanyard notwithstanding, I feel guilty taking up increasingly rare deal-making space. Time to stretch the legs.
Advertisement
Out on the sidewalk, I turn around to peer up the length of Paper2017’s homebase, The Tallest Building in the World With an All-Concrete Structure. When the building was completed in 2009, the Chicago Tribune’s architecture critic, Blair Kamin, wrote that it was “not vulgar, respectable enough, but still short of Chicago’s soaring architectural standards”. Kamin was less kind when the building later unveiled a finishing touch: five serifed, all-caps letters, spanning nearly the length of half a football field, spelling out the developer’s name: T-R-U-M-P.
So bad was this sign – slung low on the facade, where no other Chicago building had dared to brand before – that the building’s architect reportedly emailed Kamin to say, “Just for the record, I had nothing to do with this sign!” Kamin called it “as subtle as Godzilla”, and a “poke in the eye”, and pretty much everybody in Chicago agreed. It really is a terrible sign.
Curiously, despite his name hanging hugely on the outside of the building – not to mention printed on every napkin, coffee cup, water bottle, pen and pad of paper inside – Trump is mentioned to me only twice during Paper2017. Once is in terms that remind me of the weeks of pained post-election analysis about how urban elites had failed to heed the struggles of the working class: “When you get out in the rural part of our country, and you see what’s happened … regardless of what your political affiliation is, I can tell you, Donald Trump tapped into something,” says Mike Grimm, CEO of American Eagle Paper Mills in Tyrone, Pennsylvania (population 5,301).
Grimm talks about the role the mill had played in the town’s history. His own great-grandfather, an Italian immigrant, worked in the machine room. Grimm remembers the paper mill’s whistle directing not just the shifts of the mill workers, but also the lives of the town’s residents.
And yet, in 2001, the mill shut down, as its large corporate owner consolidated. It was a blow to the region, but two years later a group of former mill managers pooled their resources and reopened it as American Eagle. “Especially today, when you lose that type of income out of a small town, it just can’t be replaced,” Grimm says.

Anon-professional can only take so much discussion of sustainable wood procurement, the neuroscience of touch, “connected packaging solutions” and the potential for using paper sludge and fly ash to offset oil-based polypropylene in plastic composites. Halfway through the conference, I ache for news beyond Paper2017, and start thumbing through the headlines on CNN, Fox News and the New York Times. Regret sinks in immediately. I retreat back to the appropriately mobile-unfriendly PaperAge.com and bathe in the insular warmth of headlines such as “Pratt Industries Officially Opens New Corrugated Box Factory in Beloit, Wisconsin”, “Sonoco-Alcore to Increase Prices for Tubes & Cores in Europe”, and “Mohawk’s Tom O’Connor Jr and Ted O’Connor Earn AIPMM’S 2017 Peyton Shaner Award”. That last article, really just a reprint of a Mohawk press release, contains this lovely remark from a paper industry colleague: “[Tom and Ted] are lions in our industry that represent the first family in paper with old-fashioned values and exciting new products and services that make this crazy business fresh and fun. When the O’Connor family succeeds, we all succeed.”
Advertisement
On the third and final day of Paper2017, the industry’s sobering choices are laid bare before us in two sessions featuring analysts from RISI, a market-research firm that considers itself “the best-positioned and most authoritative global source of forest products information and data”.
In the first session, we learn that the global demand for printing and writing (P&W) paper has been in steady decline since 2008. These are the papers most of us think of when we think of paper: the uncoated mechanicals, the uncoated freesheets and woodfree, the coated mechanicals and coated woodfree, the coated freesheets – ie, what composes directories, paperback books, newspaper inserts, low-end magazines and catalogues, direct (junk) mail, envelopes, brochures, photo printing, menus, posters, stationery, legal forms, and the iconic 8.5in by 11in office copy paper. They are suffering the combined assault of social media, email, tablets, e-billing, e-readers, laptops, smartphones, online forms, banner ads etc. Worldwide demand for P&W paper fell by 2.6% in 2015, according to RISI. Preliminary data suggests it fell by 2.2% in 2016, and RISI forecasts it will continue to fall by another 1.1% in 2017 and 2018.
But there’s more to paper than printing and writing. Market trends session No 2 focused on global paper-based packaging and recovered fibre, where the outlook is much brighter. There is talk of an “Amazon effect”, paired with a slide showing several boxes within boxes and paper padding used to ship one tiny bottle of vitamins. Big Paper is learning to sustain itself by encasing e-commerce gold. The internet taketh away, and the internet giveth.
You’re seeing more paper in food and drink packaging, too. RISI chalks this up to increasingly negative public attitudes toward plastic packaging. Plastic-bag bans and taxes are popping up all over the place. RISI illustrates the trend with a photo of a sea turtle ensnared underwater in plastic wrap.
And then there’s tissue. It may not be the first thing we think of when we think of paper, but Big Paper is indeed very much in the business of selling toilet paper, facial tissue, paper towels and “feminine products” – and business is good. You can’t blow your nose into an email. In the end, we are material. We have inputs and outputs. We require physical receptacles. And more of us are on the way. RISI foresees a 3% annual rise in global tissue demand through 2018, and a 1.4% rise in global paper demand overall.
Even Mohawk, which is firmly planted in the printing and writing segment, is optimistic. “We tend not to listen to all this,” says Ted, back in the Mohawk suite, holding up the Paper2017 program. “Trends and this and that.” He shakes his head dismissively. According to Ted and Tom, Mohawk has been growing by around 3% or 4% a year.
It seems Mohawk might understand something that others in the industry do not. While many larger paper companies were reacting to the prods of market wonks and consultants by reinventing themselves as manufacturers of toilet tubes or Amazon packaging, Mohawk had been doubling down on its original value proposition: making really great paper. Amid the chaos of beeping, buzzing and blinking, Mohawk now stands out as a quiet, focused manufacturer of the world’s simplest publishing platform – one that actually gives its users pleasant haptic associations.
It’s not that Mohawk ignores the digital revolution; rather, they have made a choice to sell the ethos of paper to the digitally fatigued. Melissa Stevens, Mohawk’s senior VP of sales, hands me Mohawk’s Declaration of Craft, an absolutely gorgeous piece of printed material chock-full of new-agey thingness. Its thesis: “In an era of impermanence, an extraordinary movement has emerged. A movement of makers where craftsmanship and permanence matter now more than ever.”
Mohawk’s communication strategy is built around this “maker” movement, which is illustrated with hipsters throwing clay in their basements, forging wrought iron and side-hustling in saxophone design. It’s impossible to tell if this is brilliant marketing or sheer impudence, or both.
The staff of paper company Dunder Mifflin in US sitcom The Office.
 The staff of paper company Dunder Mifflin in US sitcom The Office. Photograph: Mitchell Haaseth/NBC Universal, Inc.
My mind keeps returning to one particular episode of the The Office, the great sitcom that followed (in its US version) the employees of Dunder Mifflin, a small paper sales company in Scranton, Pennsylvania. Pam Beesly, the receptionist, is having a bad day. The handful of friends and co-workers who have shown up for her art show mostly just yawn at her still lifes and exurban landscapes. One character dismisses it as “motel art”. But just as Pam is about to leave, her boss, Michael Scott, shows up. He has had a rough day, too – he has been made a fool of by his own subordinates, and by business-school students smugly assured of paper’s doom.
Pam’s art mesmerises Michael. “My God, these could be tracings,” he says, pure of heart. He insists on buying her painting of the office. Pam’s eyes grow wet. So do Michael’s. “That is our building,” he says, “and we sell paper.”
It is the best scene in the series. I watch it, and I feel the victory of earnestness over a world of naysayers. We cut to Michael back at Dunder Mifflin, hanging the painting of the office in the office on The Office. “It is a message,” he says. “It’s an inspiration. It’s a source of beauty. And without paper, it could not have happened … ”
He pauses to consider this. “Unless you had a camera.”

Imagine that, instead of paper, the computer and all its accoutrements came first. In a flash of divine perception, a Chinese castrate under Ho Ti’s reign conceives of binary systems, electronic circuits, vacuum tubes, capacitors, Boolean logic, transistors, integrated circuits, microprocessors, keyboards, floppy disks, CD-ROMs, zip drives, HTML, CSS, Javascript, modems, routers, email, wifi, AoL, Google, Friendster, Napster, Myspace, Facebook, Twitter, gifs – all at once. And so, for nearly two millennia, the human race lives in a paperless, digital world.
Advertisement
Then, sometime in the middle of the 20th century, scientists at MIT, Stanford and the US Department of Defense begin to search for a better way to store and share their ideas. They experiment with mashing up old rags and wood to mix with water, draining the mixture through a screen and drying the matted fibres into sheets. The breakthrough makes its way into civilian life, and by the turn of the millennium most people in the developed world carry a pad of paper in their pocket.
Perhaps, in this version of events, we would regard paper as the superior technology, and not just because of novelty. After all, paper loads instantly. It requires no software, no battery, no power source. It is remarkably lightweight, thin and made from abundant, recyclable materials. Its design is minimalist, understated, calm.
Throughout Paper2017, people try to convince me (and perhaps themselves) that the Office-inspired stereotype of paper as aloof and backwards is wrong. Paper isn’t boring, they tell me; in fact, it’s an “exciting time for the industry”. They coopt the technophile’s word cloud – “innovative”, “disruptive”, “smart”.
And yet, at the very same time that it tries to showcase its innovative credentials, paper is also promoting a nostalgic counter-narrative, filled with references to family, American values and smalltown workers. Not unlike that of coal mines or auto plants, this story imagines paper mills as monuments to the fading promise of American industry.
Paper will survive in some form (packaging, toilet paper etc) and so, I’d wager, will both of these narratives. Meanwhile, as writers like me fret about the battle between digital and paper, the industry is shifting, like so many others, from a steady stable of family-run mills to a business model that breeds perpetual uncertainty, interpreted by consultants and navigated by anomalous corporate marketing entities. Behind all the optimistic talk of restructuring opportunities and rebranding initiatives, traditional careers in American paper are vanishing: according to the New York Times, Wisconsin alone has lost 20,000 paper factory jobs since 2000.
There aren’t many representatives at the conference of workers like Neil’s dad, who had actually manned those mills for generations; there are, however, plenty of consultants like Neil, who speak the language of metrics and markets effortlessly. I used to believe, probably like most people, that paper was just a simple canvas for my ideas. By the end of Paper2017, I want to believe that making paper could be everything: an artisanal craft and a family-run business and a developing-world growth opportunity and a packaging revolution. Yet I can’t help noticing how familiar are the marketing creeds I hear over and over at the conference: a 21st-century blend of techno-speak, nostalgia and nonsense.

The other time someone at Paper2017 mentions to me the man whose name hangs on the side of The Tallest Building in the World with an All-Concrete Structure is on the conference’s final morning. A friendly man from Belgium with a South Asian accent plops down in the armchair across from me, just outside the CL. I had met him briefly on the first day of the conference, and when I idly remark that there seems to be a lot of excitement in the paper industry these days, he quickly replies: “Excitement? Or fear?”
Advertisement
The man has some cursory relation to paper – he is in the import/export business – but it is a bit foggy to me. When we get on to the topic of technology, disruption and automation, he paints a much bleaker picture than I heard in any of my other conversations at Paper2017. Robots will one day replace truck drivers, and then chefs, and then even your primary-care physician, he says, absently spinning his smartphone between his left thumb and forefinger. In that case, I ask, what do you tell your children about their future career prospects?
“Be a salesperson,” he says. “If there is artificial intelligence, then they will be selling the robots.” He winks and smiles, and flips his smartphone again. “This is how it will be.”
I must look uneasy about all this, because he then tries to reassure me. He points to Europe as an example of a place where governments are getting ahead of this trend, requiring that employers pay extra into social security if they replace a human worker with a machine. He says he knows less about the situation in the US, but feels things would be OK.
“You have a nice president who is a businessman,” he says. “He’s not a politician. There is profit or loss in business, so you either win or lose. Some people don’t like that, but I think it will be good.”
A longer version of this article first appeared in The Point magazine
 Follow the Long Read on Twitter at @gdnlongread, or sign up to the long read weekly email here.

Since you’re here …

… we have a small favour to ask. More people are reading the Guardian than ever but advertising revenues across the media are falling fast. And unlike many news organisations, we haven’t put up a paywall – we want to keep our journalism as open as we can. So you can see why we need to ask for your help. The Guardian’s independent, investigative journalism takes a lot of time, money and hard work to produce. But we do it because we believe our perspective matters – because it might well be your perspective, too.
The Guardian kept me informed on the 2017 UK general election night (as on so many occasions). We are at such a significant, uncertain time, worldwide. I want the Guardian to continue to reflect that, respond to and question it.Susan A, UK
If everyone who reads our reporting, who likes it, helps fund it, our future would be much more secure.