What the “superforecasters” predict for major events in 2023 | The Economist

What the “superforecasters” predict for major events in 2023 | The Economist: The experts at Good Judgment weigh in on the coming year | The World Ahead What the “superforecasters” predict for major events in 2023 economist.com/the-world-ahead/2022/11/18/what-the-superforecasters-predict-for-major-events-in-2023 The Economist The World Ahead | The World Ahead 2023 The experts at Good Judgment weigh in on the coming year Nov 18th 2022 JOURNALISTS AND commentators like to make predictions about the future using carefully chosen words. Other forecasters prefer the language of numbers. Good Judgment, a forecasting firm, has recruited many such individuals to its team of superforecasters, who work together to provide detailed, specific forecasts. Here are their predictions for events in 2023. Forecasting winner Congratulations to Jared Leibowich from San Francisco, who has won The World Ahead 2022 forecasting challenge organised in collaboration with Good Judgment. He took up forecasting during the pandemic as a way to maintain his mental health in a time of uncertainty. Could you be a superforecaster, too? Test your own prediction skills in our 2023 forecasting challenge, which runs until October 2023 at gjopen.com/economist Last year’s predictions The superforecasters scored 5/8 with their predictions for 2022, correctly calling election results in France and Brazil; the lack of a Winter Olympics boycott; the outcome of America’s midterm elections; and that global covid-19 vaccinations would reach 12bn doses in mid-2022. The Omicron variant was to blame for the three misses. A new dominant variant was not anticipated until later in 2022; Omicron meant gdp growth was weaker than expected; and it hindered the resumption of air travel in America. This article appeared in the Superforecasts section of the print edition of The World Ahead 2023 under the headline “The experts’ best bets” Reuse this content Powered by PrintFriendly.com Privacy